6000 could die with Swine flu

A "worst case scenario" could see around 6,000 people die from swine flu across the country this season, Health Minister Nicola Roxon says.

Over 10,000 Australians have contracted the virus, 22 have died and almost 60 are in intensive care.
There were predictions yesterday that between 10,000 and 20,000 people could die from swine flu, but the Health Minister was quick to dismiss those numbers as "ludicrous".
Ms Roxon has told Radio National that projections show that if no action was taken against the disease, such as use of a vaccine and anti-virals, around 6,000 deaths would be expected.
"The 6,000 figure was agreed between all jurisdictions and advising health professionals," she said.
Yesterday infectious diseases expert Professor Raina MacIntyre, who is part of the influenza advisory group to Australia's chief medical officer Jim Bishop, said there could be up to 20,000 deaths from the disease.
But Ms Roxon says this is not correct.
"That simply is not based on the current information that we have about this particular disease," she said.
On average there are around 1,000 flu deaths in Australia each season.
On Tuesday Professor Jim Bishop said swine flu cases were expected to peak in August.
Pharmaceutical CSL will begin human tests next week of a vaccine it has developed after which it is expected over 20 million doses will be distributed in October.
In the UK it is likely a vaccine will be available in around a month but Ms Roxon says this is because they are not conducting human tests.
"I think we should be confident that we want to make sure the vaccine is safe and effective before we distribute it to a very big chunk of the population," she said.
However, Ms Roxon said if the virus "took a turn for the worse" the Government would consider fast-tracking the vaccine if appropriate advice was given.
She also said treating those with swine flu make take precedence over elective surgery as hospitals deal with the extra demand.
"It may well mean that some elective surgery or other procedures do have to be delayed for urgent attention to be provided to those who are having a severe impact from this flu," she said.